A new version of Moore’s Law comes from the father of ChatGPT: AI doubles in 18 months


There is a golden rule in the semiconductor industry, which is Moore’s Law, proposed by the founder of Intel more than 50 years ago, which states that transistors on a chip can double in 18 to 24 months. Now it is the age of AI. Sam Altman, the father of ChatGPT, has proposed a new version of Moore’s Law.

Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI and known as the “father of ChatGPT,” wrote on social media that a new version of Moore’s Law is coming, stating that the world’s AI computing is doubling every 18 months.

In 1965, Gordon Moore, then an engineer at Fairchild Semiconductor who later founded Intel, wrote that the density of transistors in semiconductor chips doubled every 18 months, known as Moore’s law. This was later corrected to double the density and halve the cost in 24 months, or two years.

As for ChatGPT, it is currently using GPT-3 model with 175 billion parameters, has accumulated 100 million users, daily activity is more than 13 million, the training phase of about 3640 PF-days (i.e., 1PetaFLOP/s efficiency run of 3640 days), the cost is estimated at $5 million per session.

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In the future, it will be upgraded to GPT-4 model, with 100 trillion parameters, and the computational performance needs to be improved exponentially.


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